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CRUDE oil futures jumped yesterday on supply concerns, stoked by a new round of Turkish airstrikes in northern Iraq and a growing belief that US oil inventories fell last week. Turkey's military said its warplanes bombed eight suspected Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq on Wednesday. It was the third Turkish strike inside Iraq in less than two weeks. Iraq produced 2.32 million barrels of oil a day in November, according to the International Energy Agency, or about 2.7 percent of the world's oil supply. As much as 400,000 barrels a day is exported north across Iraq's border with Turkey, and the air assaults raise the risk of retaliatory strikes against oil infrastructure, analysts said. "People are nervous about a possible disruption of supply on some important pipelines" in the area, Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at MF Global in New York, told Dow Jones Newswires. The new attacks came as oil investors awaited inventory data from the Energy Department's

OIL prices drifted higher in light holiday trading yesterday after predictions of a drop in crude inventories raised new supply concerns. With little other news to motivate buying or selling, investors focused on forecasts by analysts including Addison Armstrong, director of exchange traded markets at TFS Energy Futures LLC, who predicted crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels last week. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc, predicted that crude stocks fell by 2 million to 3 million barrels. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports oil inventories on Thursday this week, a day late due to Christmas. Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 82 cents to settle at US$94.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling as low as US$92.50 earlier. Prices rose more than US$2 on Friday after the government reported consumer spending jumped more than expected in November, raising hopes that the economy will weather the crisis roiling

CRUDE oil futures rose yesterday after the government said stocks of crude and heating oil fell sharply last week while gasoline inventories jumped. In its weekly inventory snapshot, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported crude stocks dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.5 million barrel decline analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected. Much of the decline was due to a sharp drop in imports, almost a million barrels a day, because fog closed the Houston Ship Channel last week, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. "That's basically what drew crude supplies lower," Ritterbusch said. Traders expect crude supplies will rebound in next week's report, which will reflect deliveries that were delayed by the fog, Ritterbusch said. Meanwhile, investors were focusing on other aspects of the report, which were mixed. For instance, heating oil

CONSUMER confidence is falling, the odds of a recession have risen, analysts predict the worst holiday shopping since 2002 - and retail-industry executives are buying their companies' shares like never before. Limited Brands Inc Chief Executive Officer Leslie Wexner and eight other executives bought a record amount of stock last month after prices fell to a four-year low. Dillard's Inc director Warren Stephens made the biggest insider purchase ever as shares of the Arkansas-based department store chain headed for the steepest decline since at least 1980. Cambiar Investors LLC, Royce & Associates LLC and Becker Capital Management Inc say insider buying foreshadows a rebound. The last four times executives added to their holdings, the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Retailing Index rose an average 9.9 percent in the next three months, topping a 6.2-percent average rise in the S&P 500 Index. Retail company officials increased their investments by US$346.4 million since the start

OIL futures fell yesterday to their lowest level in six weeks after a mixed government inventory report failed to offset a belief that supplies are growing faster than demand. Investors shrugged off OPEC's decision to keep production levels steady, a possible sign prices have peaked for the year, analysts said. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude supplies plunged by 8 million barrels last week, much more than the expected 700,000 barrel decline. That caused oil prices to jump briefly above US$90 a barrel. But other aspects of the report weighed on prices as the day wore on. Crude supplies grew at the closely-watching Nymex delivery terminal in Cushing, Oklahoma. Inventories of heating oil rose when analysts had expected a decline, and gasoline supplies rose more than expected. "Overall, this is a mixed report," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc, in a research note. Earlier yesterday,

ENERGY futures fell yesterday after the government reported unexpected increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories last week and OPEC forecast fourth-quarter demand for oil would be less than expected. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels during the week ended November 9. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected a decline of 300,000 barrels. That helped send light, sweet crude for December delivery falling 66 US cents to settle at US$93.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading off more than US$2 a barrel earlier. Crude prices have been volatile this week, falling more than US$3 on Tuesday and rising more than US$2 on Wednesday after hitting a record of US$98.62 one week ago. The drop in crude was limited, however, by an unexpectedly large drop in heating oil supplies, a mixed report on Iran's compliance with UN demands over

CORN fell the most last week on speculation that higher supplies in China, the world's largest consumer of the grain, will cut demand for imports. China will produce 145 million metric tons of corn this season, up from 143 million estimated in October, the US Department of Agriculture said in a report on Friday. That would push the country's reserves to 28.1 million tons before the next harvest, up from 25.7 million estimated a month ago. Still, the stocks would 14 percent off from the previous year, Bloomberg News said. "The trade is unlikely to think that the Chinese are going to import corn anytime soon," said Mike Zuzolo, president of Risk Management Commodities Inc in Lafayette, Indiana. Speculation that China would become a net importer of corn for the first time in 12 years helped push corn prices up 12 percent in the past two months, he said. Corn futures for December delivery fell 2.75 cents, or 0.7 percent, to US$3.8675 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade,

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Airline shares inched lower in morning trade Wednesday as oil prices resumed their climb above $91 a barrel. The Amex Airline Index fell 0.2% with 10 of 14 stocks in the benchmark index slipping. Crude oil futures were up $1.01 at $91.39 a barrel, as traders bid up the December contract ahead of the Energy Department's weekly report on petroleum inventories. Outside the index, Hawaiian Holdings shares jumped 19.6% to $5.25 a share. Late Tuesday, its flagship carrier Hawaiian Airlines said it had won a ruling over misuse of confidential information in a lawsuit against Mesa Air Group and was awarded $80 million in damages. Mesa Air shares fell 2.9% to $4.95.

OIL futures extended their declines yesterday on expectations that the government's weekly fuel inventory report will show crude supplies increased last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average predict that crude inventories rose by 300,000 barrels during the week ended October 19. However, estimates vary widely, ranging from an increase of 2 million barrels to a decrease of 2 million barrels. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration will issue its inventory report Wednesday. Futures have declined every day since crude prices rose to a record above US$90 a barrel last week. Tuesday's retreat came as traders shrugged off initial concerns about a possible Turkish incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels. Concerns about a disruption in Iraqi crude sent oil prices higher early Tuesday, but the fact the gains didn't hold was a sign the market may be due for a correction, or sharp move lower, analysts said. "I think the

PETROLEUM futures rose sharply yesterday and oil prices passed US$83 a barrel after the US government reported an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories. Prices were also supported by an International Energy Agency report that concluded oil inventories held by the world's largest industrialized countries have fallen below a five-year average, and by concerns that clashes between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels could affect Iraqi oil supplies. "No news was bearish today," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Florida. "Really, that's all investors need right now to push energy prices higher." The weekly inventory report from the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude supplies fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended October 5. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average expected oil inventories to rise by 1 million barrels. While the report also concluded that refinery activity and

OIL futures surged yesterday in a late rally driven by news that workers at Chevron Corp. facilities in Nigeria had staged a surprise strike and by a report that demand for gasoline is up. Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and one of the top overseas suppliers to the United States. Oil prices often rise when Nigerian oil supplies are threatened. "Employees of some of the companies providing labor workforce to Chevron, and belonging to the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers ... initiated (a) strike" at six facilities, Chevron said in a statement. Chevron said production was unaffected. It was unclear how long the strike might last. Nigerian oil workers have a history of striking frequently, but returning to work quickly. Prices were also supported by a MasterCard Advisors LLC report that concluded gasoline demand rose 1.3 percentage points last week compared to the same week last year. Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.04 to settle at US$81.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November gasoline rose 1.34 US cents to settle at US$2.0336 a gallon while Nymex heating oil rose 3.19 US cents to settle at US$2.2172 a gallon. November natural gas rose 14.7 US cents to settle at US$7.01 per 1,000 cubic feet on expectations that this winter will be colder than last. In London, November Brent crude rose US$1.11 to settle at US$78.60 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. The news from Nigeria and MasterCard interrupted what had been a sleepy day in the Nymex energy futures pits. With little news driving prices earlier in the day, futures had alternated between gains and losses as traders debated whether Thursday's inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration will show an increase in crude stockpiles. The report will be released a day later than normal due to Monday's Columbus Day holiday. "The market was starving for some news," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires predict, on average, that crude oil inventories rose 1 million barrels during the week ended Oct. 5, while refinery use fell 0.1 percentage point to 87.4 percent of capacity. Gasoline inventories fell by 300,000 barrels last week, the analysts predict, while distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, likely declined 600,000 barrels. However, a consensus is far from clear, with some

OIL futures rose sharply yesterday after the government predicted that a colder winter ahead will help lift worldwide demand for crude during the fourth quarter. In a monthly report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration estimated that global demand for oil will be 1.8 million barrels a day higher in the fourth quarter than it was during the same period last year. The report follows a prediction Thursday from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that temperatures in the US will be 1.3 percent colder than last year, although they'll be 2.8 percent warmer than average. "Initially, traders are relying on the Energy Information Administration (report)," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in New York. However, Evans also said of Tuesday's trading, "I think there may (also) be a technical element to this." Oil prices declined more than US$2 a barrel on Monday, and have been volatile in recent days. Analysts say investors are engaged in a battle over whether oil supplies are adequate to meet fourth quarter demand. Some investors feel prices have peaked for the year and are due to begin a seasonal decline, while others feel prices could rise again and set new records. When prices held above US$78 on Monday, that may have emboldened some of the more bullish investors to try to push prices to new highs, Evans said. Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.24 to settle at US$80.26 a barrel Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gasoline futures rose 2 cents to settle at US$2.0202 a gallon. November heating oil rose 2.57 cents to settle at US$2.1853 a gallon, while natural gas for November rose 1.7 cents to US$6.863 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, November Brent crude rose 91 cents to settle at US$77.49 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices slipped 0.2 cent overnight to a national average of US$2.765 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices have slid in recent weeks as consumer demand for gasoline has fallen. In addition to reacting to Tuesday's EIA predictions about future demand, traders are anticipating Thursday's EIA report on petroleum inventories. Crude oil inventories are expected to have gained 1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 5, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts, while refinery use is expected to have fallen by 0.1 percentage point to

ASIAN stocks gained, led by Japanese exporters, after the yen reached a two-month low against the US dollar. BHP Billiton Ltd and Inpex Holdings Ltd fell after oil and copper prices extended their biggest drops in seven weeks. Honda Motor Co, which gets more than half of its sales from North America, climbed to an eight-week high. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose as Japan's market, which was closed on Monday, caught up with a rally fueled by a pickup in US hiring. "The improving US outlook has prompted a strengthening in the dollar; that's positive for exporters," said Yoji Takeda, who helps manage about US$900 million at RBC Investment (Asia) Ltd in Hong Kong. Benchmarks in Australia, South Korea, Singapore and Pakistan climbed to records while those in Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Thailand and Pakistan also rose. They fell elsewhere in the region. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent to 166.04 as of 4:30pm in Tokyo, after earlier gaining as much as 0.5 percent. A measure of materials producers was the biggest drag on the index. "We've seen some weakening in commodity prices over the past few days and that's being reflected in the related stocks," Takeda said. The Nikkei 225 added 0.6 percent to 17,159.90. KK DaVinci Advisors led real estate-related shares higher after Goldman Sachs Group Inc offered to buy Simplex Investment Advisors Inc. US stocks slid on Monday, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index 0.3 percent lower. The index rose to a record on Friday after the Labor Department said the number of jobs in the country rose by 110,000 last month, more than the 100,000 additions forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey. "Concern about a slowdown in the US economy is easing," said Fujio Ando, who helps oversee US$365 million at Chiba-Gin Asset Management in Tokyo. "The strong jobs data also spurred dollar-buying. That's also positive for Japanese exporters." The yen recently traded at 117.35 per US dollar, compared with 116.59 at the market close on Friday in Tokyo. A weaker yen boosts the value of exporters' dollar-denominated sales when converted into the Japanese currency. Honda rose one percent to 4,020 yen (US$34.28), set for the highest close since August 15. Sony Corp, the maker of the Vaio computer and the PlayStation game console, added 0.5 percent to 5,820 yen. BHP, the world's largest mining company, fell 0.7 percent to A$44.40 (US

THE widening gap between crude oil and the relatively low price of gasoline is signaling the first quarterly decline in oil prices in a year. While oil has fallen in the fourth quarter during 13 of the past 20 years because of the transition from peak summer demand, the pressure for another drop in the months ahead is the most intense since 2004 and may defer any rebound to record crude prices until the first half of 2008. Citigroup Inc, Deutsche Bank AG and HSBC Holdings Plc anticipate that oil will slide from last month's record US$83.90 a barrel as gasoline sales weaken to the lowest level this year and a slowing US economy curbs demand. Profits from making fuels are so low that refiners have 12.5 percent of capacity off line, the second-highest rate of the past two decades for this time of year, data from the US Department of Energy show. "Refinery profit margins are being squeezed at a time when significant maintenance is scheduled," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc in New York. "The combination of these factors should send crude oil lower." Oil traders and analysts have never been more pessimistic, with 75 percent of respondents anticipating prices will fall, according to a weekly survey by Bloomberg News that started in April 2004. Crude may end the year below US$70 a barrel, compared with US$81.66 at the end of the third quarter, according to a forecast by Adam Sieminski, a global oil analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York. If he's right, a US$1 million investment in crude oil futures in New York would more than double to US$2.3 million, assuming speculators used the exchange's minimum deposit to conduct the transaction. Not everyone forecasts that oil will move lower by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc is the most bullish commodities trading firm on oil, forecasting on September 17 that crude will end the year at US$85 a barrel, with a "high risk" of a jump above US$90, according to a report from analysts including Jeffrey Currie in London. Its two current trading recommendations on oil are both money-losers. One of them was to buy the gasoline refining margin, which has lost more than half its value since then, Goldman's research shows.

A SERIES of international sports events helped boost Shanghai's retail sales by a fifth during last week's National Day holiday, the city's economic commission said yesterday. Sales generated by the 425 retailers surveyed jumped 20.5 percent to 5.1 billion yuan (US$680 million) between October 1 and 7 from the same period last year, the Shanghai Economic Commission said in a report. The growth rate was 3.7 percentage points higher than the pace registered during the Labor Day holiday in May and 6.1 percentage points higher than February's Spring Festival. Chen Yuxian, author of the report, attributed the Golden Week spending boom partly to the FIFA Women's World Cup soccer championship, the Special Olympics and the Formula One Chinese Grand Prix, which all brought large numbers of athletes and sports fans to town. "Several local shopping and tourism events coincided with the holiday, plus the good weather also pushed up sales," Chen said. Hundreds of theme events were held citywide as part of the Shanghai Shopping Festival, including the Luwan District's imported food show, an international shopping carnival in Jing'an District, Huangpu's jewelry fete and a wine-tasting gala in Hongkou District. Hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores were the leading contributors to the consumption boom, accounting for 41.2 percent of the total retail sales, the report said. Sales in department stores and shopping malls also rose. But sales in the restaurant sector fell 16.4 percent to 137.8 million yuan from the same period a year earlier, and receipts for hotels and related service businesses dropped 3.2 percent to 97.2 million yuan, the report said, without stating a reason. Local retail powerhouse Shanghai Brilliance (Group) Co generated 1.69 billion yuan in sales over the weeklong holiday, up 20.7 percent year on year and topping the eight major business groups surveyed by the commission. Meanwhile, retail sales in the suburbs totaled 763 million yuan, up 16.6 percent, led by Nanhui, Songjiang, Jinshan, Qingpu and Baoshan districts, which reported a rise of more than 25 percent. The report also said food prices remained stable during the holiday, with meat prices falling from the pre-holiday period while prices of green-leaf vegetables were up slightly.

OIL prices rose for the first time in four sessions yesterday as investors questioned whether supplies of crude, gasoline and heating oil are adequate to meet demand. With heating season about to begin, investors are betting demand for crude oil will jump as refineries start producing more heating oil. And refineries that are focused on heating oil will be turning out less gasoline. The Energy Department on Wednesday reported that crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week, while supplies of distillates including heating oil fell by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline supplies fell by 100,000 barrels. Traders view that increase in crude supplies as inadequate, said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Florida. "That's nothing," Cordier said. "We expect to see figures of 3 (million) and 5 (million) barrels." Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.50 to settle at US$81.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling more than US$1 earlier. Crude's uncertain direction early in the day reflected a battle between investors betting that demand will tighten, and those who feel oil has peaked and begun a seasonal decline. "This market is going to break seasonally or the global economy is going to find (oil prices are) a bargain," Cordier said. Oil prices also drew support from heating oil and gasoline futures. Nymex heating oil rose 5.26 cents to settle at US$2.2313 a gallon, while November gasoline rose 5.63 cents to settle at US$2.0522 a gallon. Prices of both were supported by the inventory declines and several minor refinery outages on the West Coast. November natural gas rose 13.5 cents to settle at US$7.412 per 1,000 cubic feet. The Energy Department reported that natural gas inventories rose by 57 billion cubic feet last week, less than the 65 billion-cubic-foot increase analysts forecast. Some analysts said a smattering of weather systems strung from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic were supporting natural gas prices, though none of the storms are expected to develop quickly into subtropical or tropical storms and threaten critical gas and oil infrastructure in the Gulf. In London, November Brent crude rose US$1.78 to settle at US$78.97 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Some analysts think this year's record gas prices are affecting demand, which fell last week. But prices will remain high if supplies continue falling. In the

OIL prices fell today in Asia, extending a decline from the previous session that came after an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 28 cents to US$79.66 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore. The Nymex crude contract fell 11 cents to settle at US$79.94 a barrel in yesterday's floor session. Crude oil futures have fallen four straight days after trading at near record levels last week. The weekly inventory report from the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration was mixed, analysts said. Crude oil supplies unexpectedly rose in the week ended Sept. 28. Gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly fell. And while the drop in gasoline supplies is supportive, demand for the fuel is falling, and that will pressure gasoline prices and crude futures down the road, analysts said. The EIA said in its report that crude supplies rose 1.2 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had predicted that inventories fell 400,000 barrels. One million barrels of that increase were on the West Coast, the EIA said. Oil and gas infrastructure there is isolated from the rest of the country, though, and that might mean shortages elsewhere would support prices. Gasoline inventories fell 100,000 barrels last week, while supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 1.2 million barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to grow 400,000 barrels, and distillate supplies to increase 700,000 barrels. Refinery utilization rose by 0.6 percentage points to 87.5 percent of capacity. Analysts had expected an 0.4 percentage point increase. Oil's true value is closer to US$65 a barrel, said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc in New York, instead of at the near US$80 a barrel or higher range it has been trading. Many analysts feel oil prices have been driven up by speculative buying, and they argue that the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals do not support the record prices of recent weeks. However, while many analysts expect oil prices to begin a seasonal decline into winter, few are willing to predict when that slide will begin. Oil prices normally drop off every year in the period between the northern summer driving season and the US and European winter. November Brent crude fell 23 cents to US$76.95 a barrel on the ICE futures

CRUDE oil may decline on speculation that near-record prices are unjustified because of rising US inventories and increased OPEC output. Twenty-three of 32 analysts surveyed, or 72 percent, said oil prices will fall from October 5, the most bearish response since the survey began in April 2004, Bloomberg News reported. Five, or 16 percent, said prices will increase and four said there will be little change. Last week, 59 percent of respondents said prices would fall. US crude-oil inventories rose 1.84 million barrels in a week, the Energy Department said in a report on September 26. The gain left supplies 8.5 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil is delivered, dropped 209,000 barrels, the report said. "While the market may be vulnerable to a squeeze based on low physical inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, overall US commercial crude-oil stocks are comfortably above their five-year average," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc in New York. "It also looks like OPEC production is rising and the fourth-quarter demand may be revised lower." The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on September 11 to produce an extra 500,000 barrels a day starting in November. World oil demand peaks in the fourth quarter when refiners make heating fuel for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Crude oil for November delivery rose four cents to US$81.66 a barrel last week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Friday's close was the second-highest since trading began in 1983.

CHINA'S futures brokerages are adding capital to prepare for the trading of stock index futures, the securities watchdog said in a conference in Beijing yesterday. "Fifty futures brokerages out of a total number of 163 firms have completed boosting their capital," said Huang Yuncheng, vice director of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's futures department, adding that 35 of them now have registered capital of more than 100 million yuan (US$13.3 million). Index futures would give China investors a mechanism to sell short in the stock market, betting on a drop in prices. That may help deflate the nation's rising stocks, the value of which exceeded the 2006 gross domestic product of US$2.8 trillion for the first time on August 9, said Bloomberg News. Futures brokerages need to meet the regulator's capital requirements to be able to trade and clear stock index futures. Of the futures brokers with the most registered capital, 32 are controlled by securities companies, according to Huang.