Business news with words department+falling+prices. 25 news.

OIL prices drifted higher in light holiday trading yesterday after predictions of a drop in crude inventories raised new supply concerns. With little other news to motivate buying or selling, investors focused on forecasts by analysts including Addison Armstrong, director of exchange traded markets at TFS Energy Futures LLC, who predicted crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels last week. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc, predicted that crude stocks fell by 2 million to 3 million barrels. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports oil inventories on Thursday this week, a day late due to Christmas. Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 82 cents to settle at US$94.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling as low as US$92.50 earlier. Prices rose more than US$2 on Friday after the government reported consumer spending jumped more than expected in November, raising hopes that the economy will weather the crisis roiling

GOVERNMENT subsidy support for meat production will be stable even when pork prices fluctuate, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday. Speaking at an online press conference, Zeng Xiao'an, deputy director of the MOF's Department of Economic Development, said the government would take subsidies for piglet keepers into a long-term mechanism framework. "It does not matter whether pork prices are rising or falling, the supportive policies will be successive," said Zeng. "We will only adjust the strength of the policies based on real conditions," Zeng said when asked about the policies' time limit. To combat escalating inflation, China pledged to draw up a series of measures, including more subsidies for farmers. From July next year to the end of June in 2009, subsidies for each reproductive female piglet will be raised from 50 yuan (US$6.75) to 100 yuan, said Zeng. Also, the central government will allocate 2.5 billion yuan next year to support the

OIL prices jumped in light trading yesterday after the government reported that consumer spending surged last month, raising hopes that the US economy will weather the crisis roiling credit markets and that demand for oil and gasoline will strengthen. The Commerce Department said consumer spending jumped 1.1 percent in November, the biggest one-month gain since 2004 and well above analyst expectations for an 0.7 percent increase. Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose US$2.25 to settle at US$93.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices were also supported by stocks, which rose yesterday, and a slightly weaker dollar. Energy investors often view stock market moves as reflective of overall economic sentiment. Also, oil futures offer a hedge against a weak dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling. Many observers blame oil's rise last month to near US$100 on speculators

CONSUMER confidence is falling, the odds of a recession have risen, analysts predict the worst holiday shopping since 2002 - and retail-industry executives are buying their companies' shares like never before. Limited Brands Inc Chief Executive Officer Leslie Wexner and eight other executives bought a record amount of stock last month after prices fell to a four-year low. Dillard's Inc director Warren Stephens made the biggest insider purchase ever as shares of the Arkansas-based department store chain headed for the steepest decline since at least 1980. Cambiar Investors LLC, Royce & Associates LLC and Becker Capital Management Inc say insider buying foreshadows a rebound. The last four times executives added to their holdings, the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Retailing Index rose an average 9.9 percent in the next three months, topping a 6.2-percent average rise in the S&P 500 Index. Retail company officials increased their investments by US$346.4 million since the start

HOUSING prices in 70 major Chinese cities jumped by 10.5 percent in November, according to an official with the country's top economic planning body. The growth rate was the largest monthly rise since July 2005 when China started to cover more cities in its monthly housing price survey. From January to November, housing prices grew by 7.3 percent year on year, with the cost of new homes jumping 7.9 percent, Cao Changqing, director of the pricing department under the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an online interview. Rising property prices, driven up by speculation, have become a major concern for Chinese citizens. "Despite falling sales, housing prices in parts of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen still remain high," he said. Prices are expected to remain stable as macro-control policies are starting to yield results, Cao said. The government introduced a string of policies to cool off the red-hot real estate market.

RETAIL sales in the United States increased twice as much as forecast in November, easing concern near-record fuel prices and falling home values would trip up consumers. The 1.2-percent rise, the biggest since May, followed a 0.2-percent gain the prior month, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles jumped 1.8 percent, the most since January 2006.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales rose a better-than-expected 1.2% in November, the best gain in six months, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The sales gains were widespread across most kinds of retail outlets, including gasoline, department stores and hardware stores. Auto sales were the only major source of weakness, falling 1%. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for retail sales to rise 0.7%. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.8%. Wall Street had expected a increase of 0.7%. Higher prices at the pump contributed to the November sales gain. Excluding gasoline, sales increased 0.6%.

ENERGY futures fell yesterday after the government reported unexpected increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories last week and OPEC forecast fourth-quarter demand for oil would be less than expected. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels during the week ended November 9. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected a decline of 300,000 barrels. That helped send light, sweet crude for December delivery falling 66 US cents to settle at US$93.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading off more than US$2 a barrel earlier. Crude prices have been volatile this week, falling more than US$3 on Tuesday and rising more than US$2 on Wednesday after hitting a record of US$98.62 one week ago. The drop in crude was limited, however, by an unexpectedly large drop in heating oil supplies, a mixed report on Iran's compliance with UN demands over

WALL Street closed slightly lower in erratic trading yesterday as investors, uneasy about the credit markets and record-high oil prices, took little solace from reports on new home sales and durable goods orders. The Commerce Department said sales of new homes rose 4.8 percent in September from August's levels. The market initially popped on the data, as economists had predicted a decline. But it eventually pulled back because the sales increase was due to a big downward revision in August's decline, and that homebuilders had offered discounts in September to move inventory. "The sad part is, even with the discounts, we still have inventory overhang. And that's a problem," said Michael Strauss, chief economist at Commonfund. He noted that home prices are still falling, as are sales of existing homes, which make up the majority of the housing market. Another report showed that orders of big-ticket items, one gauge of business spending, fell 1.7 percent in September,

OIL futures retreated from a record US$89 a barrel yesterday, ending lower after government data showing larger-than-expected gas and oil supplies outweighed worries about tension in northern Iraq. Trading was volatile throughout the session as oil futures were buffeted by a number of headlines, including news that Turkey's parliament approved a government plan to attack Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq and word of an explosion at a small refinery in Montana. Reports by the Energy Department, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries over the past week have all supported a view that oil supplies are falling as demand is growing. But the Energy Department's inventory report yesterday countered those perceptions. "Inventories are rising, not falling," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York. "Demand is falling, not rising." Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 21 cents to settle at

PRICES paid by US consumers rose more than forecast in September as food and energy costs climbed, while the core measure that excludes those items showed inflation remains contained. The 0.3-percent gain followed a 0.1-percent decline in August prompted by falling oil prices, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington. So-called core prices rose 0.2 percent for a second month in line with forecasts. With inflation under control, Federal Reserve policy makers have leeway to consider cutting their benchmark rate again later this month to keep the economy growing in the face of a deepening housing recession. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week reiterated the central bank would "act as needed" to foster sustainable growth along with price stability, Bloomberg News said. "A slower economy and additional slack in the labor market should help keep inflation under control," Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc in New York, said

WASHINGTON Consumer inflation rose at the fastest pace in four months in September, reflecting higher energy and food costs. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its closely watched Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3 percent last month as energy costs, which had been falling for three months, posted an increase and food prices jumped by the largest amount since June. The 0.3 percent CPI increase was slightly above the 0.2 percent advance that economists had been expecting. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was up a more moderate 0.2 percent, in li

OIL prices surged as high as US$86 a barrel yesterday for the first time after OPEC said crude production by non-member countries is likely falling even as global demand for oil is rising. Prices were also supported by concerns that Turkish forces will pursue Kurdish rebels into Iraq, disrupting oil supplies, and by technical buying by investment funds. Despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision last month to boost its production by 500,000 barrels per day beginning next month, the rest of the world will likely produce 110,000 fewer barrels of oil per day than expected in the fourth quarter, OPEC said in a report. At the same time, fourth quarter demand for crude oil will grow by 100,000 barrels a day over last year, OPEC said. The estimates add to sentiment that crude supplies are tight. Last week, the Energy Department reported that domestic crude inventories fell during the week ended October 5 when they had been expected to rise. And the

THE US trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in August as exports climbed to a record for a sixth consecutive month. The gap shrank 2.4 percent to US$57.6 billion, the smallest since January, from a revised US$59 billion in July, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Foreign companies, benefiting from growing demand and a weaker dollar that's made American goods less expensive, have been snapping up Boeing Co aircraft and General Electric Co turbines. Rising exports will help keep the economy from falling into recession even as the housing slump persists. "The dollar is continuing to decline, which is giving a huge boost to competitiveness," Nigel Gault, chief US economist at Global Insight Inc in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. Economists had forecast the deficit would narrow to US$59 billion, from a previously reported US$59.2 billion in July, according to the median of 74 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices of goods

A SERIES of international sports events helped boost Shanghai's retail sales by a fifth during last week's National Day holiday, the city's economic commission said yesterday. Sales generated by the 425 retailers surveyed jumped 20.5 percent to 5.1 billion yuan (US$680 million) between October 1 and 7 from the same period last year, the Shanghai Economic Commission said in a report. The growth rate was 3.7 percentage points higher than the pace registered during the Labor Day holiday in May and 6.1 percentage points higher than February's Spring Festival. Chen Yuxian, author of the report, attributed the Golden Week spending boom partly to the FIFA Women's World Cup soccer championship, the Special Olympics and the Formula One Chinese Grand Prix, which all brought large numbers of athletes and sports fans to town. "Several local shopping and tourism events coincided with the holiday, plus the good weather also pushed up sales," Chen said. Hundreds of theme events were held citywide as part of the Shanghai Shopping Festival, including the Luwan District's imported food show, an international shopping carnival in Jing'an District, Huangpu's jewelry fete and a wine-tasting gala in Hongkou District. Hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores were the leading contributors to the consumption boom, accounting for 41.2 percent of the total retail sales, the report said. Sales in department stores and shopping malls also rose. But sales in the restaurant sector fell 16.4 percent to 137.8 million yuan from the same period a year earlier, and receipts for hotels and related service businesses dropped 3.2 percent to 97.2 million yuan, the report said, without stating a reason. Local retail powerhouse Shanghai Brilliance (Group) Co generated 1.69 billion yuan in sales over the weeklong holiday, up 20.7 percent year on year and topping the eight major business groups surveyed by the commission. Meanwhile, retail sales in the suburbs totaled 763 million yuan, up 16.6 percent, led by Nanhui, Songjiang, Jinshan, Qingpu and Baoshan districts, which reported a rise of more than 25 percent. The report also said food prices remained stable during the holiday, with meat prices falling from the pre-holiday period while prices of green-leaf vegetables were up slightly.

ENERGY futures fell yesterday as traders expecting a weakening of demand in the coming months cashed in profits from the previous session's rally. While an encouraging employment report suggested the economy is weathering the problems affecting the subprime mortgage industry, many energy traders and analysts question whether demand for oil and petroleum products will be strong enough in the fourth quarter to support US$80 a barrel oil. Others argue that demand for oil will increase as home heating season progresses. While crude inventories have risen for two straight weeks, supplies of gasoline and distillates including heating oil fell last week. Investors betting demand will tighten in the fourth quarter drove oil prices US$1.50 higher on Thursday. Yesterday, light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 22 cents to settle at US$81.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures ended the week down 44 cents a barrel, or 0.5 percent. Trading yesterday was volatile, with prices alternately rallying and falling. "There's profit-taking going on after yesterday's rally," said Addison Armstrong, an analyst with TFS Energy Futures LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The quick resolution of many of Thursday's West Coast refinery outages also pressured prices yesterday. November gasoline fell 0.29 cent to settle at US$2.0493 a gallon on the Nymex, ending the week down 1.9 cents, or 0.9 percent. Heating oil futures fell 0.78 cent to settle at US$2.2235 a gallon. Both contracts surged more than 5 cents on Thursday. Natural gas for November delivery fell 33.9 cents to settle at US$7.073 per 1,000 cubic feet. Forecasters see little chance that a series of storms strung from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic will develop into tropical storms that could threaten critical gas and oil infrastructure. In London, November Brent crude fell 7 cents to settle at US$78.90 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Oil prices have been volatile in recent days as investors have battled over whether demand will grow or weaken in the fourth quarter. "It's a stalemate right now," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "People really don't know what the next move will be." Energy Department data suggests demand for gasoline is falling, and many analysts think that's a function of this year's record gas prices. But others argue that falling refinery activity and heating oil inventories sugg

OIL prices rose for the first time in four sessions yesterday as investors questioned whether supplies of crude, gasoline and heating oil are adequate to meet demand. With heating season about to begin, investors are betting demand for crude oil will jump as refineries start producing more heating oil. And refineries that are focused on heating oil will be turning out less gasoline. The Energy Department on Wednesday reported that crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week, while supplies of distillates including heating oil fell by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline supplies fell by 100,000 barrels. Traders view that increase in crude supplies as inadequate, said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Florida. "That's nothing," Cordier said. "We expect to see figures of 3 (million) and 5 (million) barrels." Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.50 to settle at US$81.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling more than US$1 earlier. Crude's uncertain direction early in the day reflected a battle between investors betting that demand will tighten, and those who feel oil has peaked and begun a seasonal decline. "This market is going to break seasonally or the global economy is going to find (oil prices are) a bargain," Cordier said. Oil prices also drew support from heating oil and gasoline futures. Nymex heating oil rose 5.26 cents to settle at US$2.2313 a gallon, while November gasoline rose 5.63 cents to settle at US$2.0522 a gallon. Prices of both were supported by the inventory declines and several minor refinery outages on the West Coast. November natural gas rose 13.5 cents to settle at US$7.412 per 1,000 cubic feet. The Energy Department reported that natural gas inventories rose by 57 billion cubic feet last week, less than the 65 billion-cubic-foot increase analysts forecast. Some analysts said a smattering of weather systems strung from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic were supporting natural gas prices, though none of the storms are expected to develop quickly into subtropical or tropical storms and threaten critical gas and oil infrastructure in the Gulf. In London, November Brent crude rose US$1.78 to settle at US$78.97 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Some analysts think this year's record gas prices are affecting demand, which fell last week. But prices will remain high if supplies continue falling. In the

OIL prices fell today in Asia, extending a decline from the previous session that came after an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 28 cents to US$79.66 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore. The Nymex crude contract fell 11 cents to settle at US$79.94 a barrel in yesterday's floor session. Crude oil futures have fallen four straight days after trading at near record levels last week. The weekly inventory report from the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration was mixed, analysts said. Crude oil supplies unexpectedly rose in the week ended Sept. 28. Gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly fell. And while the drop in gasoline supplies is supportive, demand for the fuel is falling, and that will pressure gasoline prices and crude futures down the road, analysts said. The EIA said in its report that crude supplies rose 1.2 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had predicted that inventories fell 400,000 barrels. One million barrels of that increase were on the West Coast, the EIA said. Oil and gas infrastructure there is isolated from the rest of the country, though, and that might mean shortages elsewhere would support prices. Gasoline inventories fell 100,000 barrels last week, while supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 1.2 million barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to grow 400,000 barrels, and distillate supplies to increase 700,000 barrels. Refinery utilization rose by 0.6 percentage points to 87.5 percent of capacity. Analysts had expected an 0.4 percentage point increase. Oil's true value is closer to US$65 a barrel, said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc in New York, instead of at the near US$80 a barrel or higher range it has been trading. Many analysts feel oil prices have been driven up by speculative buying, and they argue that the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals do not support the record prices of recent weeks. However, while many analysts expect oil prices to begin a seasonal decline into winter, few are willing to predict when that slide will begin. Oil prices normally drop off every year in the period between the northern summer driving season and the US and European winter. November Brent crude fell 23 cents to US$76.95 a barrel on the ICE futures

COMMODITIES had the biggest monthly gain in September in 32 years, led by wheat, crude oil and gold, as the US dollar's slump enhanced the appeal of energy, grains and precious metals as a hedge against inflation. The 19-commodity Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index was up 8.1 percent last month, the most since July 1975. Wheat climbed to a record in September amid a global grain shortfall, boosting corn and soybeans. Oil also hit a record, and gold reached a 27-year high. The Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs to bolster the American economy, sending the US dollar tumbling. "The Fed has signaled pretty clearly that (it) will answer the problem of a slowing economy with greater liquidity," said Chip Hanlon, who manages US$1 billion at Delta Global Advisors Inc in Huntington Beach, California. "We're in a bullish phase for commodities." The CRB Index rose to 333.67 from 308.76 on August 31. Wheat reached a record US$9.5125 a bushel on Friday. Crude oil climbed to US$83.90 a barrel, the highest ever, on September 20 and approached the record on Friday. Gold rose as high as US$752.80 an ounce on Friday, the highest since January 1980. The US dollar fell to a record against a weighted basket of six major currencies, including the euro, yen and pound. The Fed on September 18 cut its benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage point, more than economists forecast, to 4.75 percent in an attempt to shore up an economy threatened by a housing recession, according to Bloomberg News. The rate cut sparked inflation concerns. Some investors buy commodities to hedge against rising consumer prices, and the falling dollar makes raw materials priced in the United States currency cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The cut in US borrowing costs will continue to weaken the dollar and lead to "skyrocketing" prices for commodities, Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc, said in an interview last week. He co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros in the 1970s. Wheat rose on Friday after the US Department of Agriculture said US production and supplies were smaller than analysts expected. Global inventories are poised to decline to the lowest level in 26 years. Wheat futures for December delivery rose six US cents, or 0.6 percent, to US$9.39 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price was up 22 percent this month and has more than doubled in the past 12 months.

OIL futures fell yesterday as a late flurry of selling overcame an earlier rally driven by the steadily weakening dollar. Early in the day, crude prices rose to near record levels as the dollar's drop against other currencies sparked buying by investment funds. But in the midst of that rally, analysts noted that oil's fundamentals are weak. Many believe it is only a matter of time before oil begins a seasonal price decline. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $1.22 to settle at $81.66 a barrel on the Nymex, giving back nearly half of the $2.58 the contract gained on Thursday. Prices rose as high as $83.76 early in the day. Oil prices peaked at a record $83.90 last week before retreating below $80 a barrel early this week. When an Energy Department report on Wednesday showed crude inventories rose last week, countering expectations for a decline, prices fell below $79 _ but then rebounded late in the day. "There's definitely been a flow of fund buying here," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York. Oil and other commodities denominated in dollars are actually falling in price in the eyes of foreign investors. That's because the dollar has been sliding against other currencies since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week. The dollar fell further yesterday on expectations that the weak U.S. economy means another rate cut is coming. Buying by foreign investors precipitates new investment by domestic traders betting the added demand will boost prices. But Evans and other analysts argue that market fundamentals do not support such high prices. Oil inventories are falling, but that's typical for this time of year, Evans said. Oil inventories are 1.3 percent below year-ago levels, but oil's price is more than $20 a barrel higher, he said. And high oil and gas prices are depressing demand, Evans added. Stephen Schork, an analyst and trader in Villanova, Pennsylvania, argued that many funds bought oil futures this week to pad their results for the third quarter, which ends yesterday. "Hedge fund managers ... went window shopping in the (New York Mercantile Exchange crude) pit to dress up their end-of-quarter marks," Schork said in his daily Schork Report research note. "We are more interested to see how the fourth quarter begins on Monday rather than how the third quarter ends today." While Nymex crude rallied late in the week, oil prices ended the week flat, up just 4 c