Business news with words analysts+department+prices. 23 news.

CRUDE oil futures jumped yesterday on supply concerns, stoked by a new round of Turkish airstrikes in northern Iraq and a growing belief that US oil inventories fell last week. Turkey's military said its warplanes bombed eight suspected Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq on Wednesday. It was the third Turkish strike inside Iraq in less than two weeks. Iraq produced 2.32 million barrels of oil a day in November, according to the International Energy Agency, or about 2.7 percent of the world's oil supply. As much as 400,000 barrels a day is exported north across Iraq's border with Turkey, and the air assaults raise the risk of retaliatory strikes against oil infrastructure, analysts said. "People are nervous about a possible disruption of supply on some important pipelines" in the area, Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at MF Global in New York, told Dow Jones Newswires. The new attacks came as oil investors awaited inventory data from the Energy Department's

OIL prices drifted higher in light holiday trading yesterday after predictions of a drop in crude inventories raised new supply concerns. With little other news to motivate buying or selling, investors focused on forecasts by analysts including Addison Armstrong, director of exchange traded markets at TFS Energy Futures LLC, who predicted crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels last week. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc, predicted that crude stocks fell by 2 million to 3 million barrels. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports oil inventories on Thursday this week, a day late due to Christmas. Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 82 cents to settle at US$94.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling as low as US$92.50 earlier. Prices rose more than US$2 on Friday after the government reported consumer spending jumped more than expected in November, raising hopes that the economy will weather the crisis roiling

CRUDE oil futures rose yesterday after the government said stocks of crude and heating oil fell sharply last week while gasoline inventories jumped. In its weekly inventory snapshot, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported crude stocks dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.5 million barrel decline analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected. Much of the decline was due to a sharp drop in imports, almost a million barrels a day, because fog closed the Houston Ship Channel last week, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. "That's basically what drew crude supplies lower," Ritterbusch said. Traders expect crude supplies will rebound in next week's report, which will reflect deliveries that were delayed by the fog, Ritterbusch said. Meanwhile, investors were focusing on other aspects of the report, which were mixed. For instance, heating oil

CONSUMER confidence is falling, the odds of a recession have risen, analysts predict the worst holiday shopping since 2002 - and retail-industry executives are buying their companies' shares like never before. Limited Brands Inc Chief Executive Officer Leslie Wexner and eight other executives bought a record amount of stock last month after prices fell to a four-year low. Dillard's Inc director Warren Stephens made the biggest insider purchase ever as shares of the Arkansas-based department store chain headed for the steepest decline since at least 1980. Cambiar Investors LLC, Royce & Associates LLC and Becker Capital Management Inc say insider buying foreshadows a rebound. The last four times executives added to their holdings, the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Retailing Index rose an average 9.9 percent in the next three months, topping a 6.2-percent average rise in the S&P 500 Index. Retail company officials increased their investments by US$346.4 million since the start

OIL futures rose sharply yesterday after the government reported unexpected declines in stocks of crude and heating oil last week and the Federal Reserve announced a plan to help banks weather the credit crisis. Crude supplies fell 700,000 barrels during the week ended December 7, according to a weekly inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Analysts had expected a 100,000 barrel increase. And supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 800,000 barrels; analysts had expected inventories to rise by 300,000 barrels. "Traders are concerned about that drop in distillate supplies," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago. Earlier, the Fed said it was working with other central banks to try to counter the credit crisis. That alleviated some of investors' disappointment that the Fed on Tuesday cut interest rates by just a quarter percentage point. Many investors had hoped for a

OIL futures fell yesterday to their lowest level in six weeks after a mixed government inventory report failed to offset a belief that supplies are growing faster than demand. Investors shrugged off OPEC's decision to keep production levels steady, a possible sign prices have peaked for the year, analysts said. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude supplies plunged by 8 million barrels last week, much more than the expected 700,000 barrel decline. That caused oil prices to jump briefly above US$90 a barrel. But other aspects of the report weighed on prices as the day wore on. Crude supplies grew at the closely-watching Nymex delivery terminal in Cushing, Oklahoma. Inventories of heating oil rose when analysts had expected a decline, and gasoline supplies rose more than expected. "Overall, this is a mixed report," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc, in a research note. Earlier yesterday,

UNITED States retailers, offering holiday discounts of 50 percent or more this week, may see profits erode even as customers flock to stores. Wal-Mart Stores Inc will mark down toys and TVs online through this week, while Kohl's Corp, the fourth-biggest US department store, sold jewelry at 60 percent off during the first days of the holiday shopping season, which started the day after Thanksgiving, so-called Black Friday. Analysts said a lack of "must-have" products in 2007 means retailers will rely on lower prices, threatening margins in the biggest quarter of the year, Bloomberg News said. Sales in November and December may increase at the slowest pace since 2002, according to the National Retail Federation, as rising fuel and food prices discourage consumers from purchasing higher-priced gifts. The NRF said shoppers each spent an average 3.5 percent less this year during the weekend after Thanksgiving. "Black Friday draws crowds, how about profits?"

ENERGY futures fell yesterday after the government reported unexpected increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories last week and OPEC forecast fourth-quarter demand for oil would be less than expected. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels during the week ended November 9. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected a decline of 300,000 barrels. That helped send light, sweet crude for December delivery falling 66 US cents to settle at US$93.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading off more than US$2 a barrel earlier. Crude prices have been volatile this week, falling more than US$3 on Tuesday and rising more than US$2 on Wednesday after hitting a record of US$98.62 one week ago. The drop in crude was limited, however, by an unexpectedly large drop in heating oil supplies, a mixed report on Iran's compliance with UN demands over

WALL Street twisted its way through another difficult session yesterday, discouraged about the economy's prospects but still managing a higher finish after some concerns about the beleaguered financial sector lifted late in the session. Word shortly before the close that Citigroup Inc.'s board plans to meet in an emergency session over the weekend helped that stock and other financials pare sharp losses. yesterday's session ended a week made turbulent not only by bad news from the financial sector but also by spiking commodity prices and comments from the Federal Reserve that it might be less generous with interest rate cuts in the coming months. A highly anticipated Labor Department report showing employers added 166,000 jobs in October _ the most in five months and nearly double what analysts had been expecting _ didn't give stocks much of a lift a day after a sharp pullback as investors' unease about the financial sector seemed to blanket trading. Wall Street was clearly

THE prospect of a stronger US economy and word of possible new UN sanctions against Iran sent crude oil futures back above US$96 a barrel yesterday. The Labor Department reported that employers boosted payrolls by 166,000 jobs in October, the biggest increase in months and double what economists had forecast. Meanwhile, October's unemployment rate held steady at 4.7 percent. Separately, the Commerce Department said factory orders rose 0.2 percent in September, better than the 0.4 percent decline analysts were expecting. "It suggests that concerns about the economy ... are overblown a little bit," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc., in Winchester, Massachusetts. Oil futures added to their gains late yesterday when the British Foreign Office said the U.N. Security Council has agreed to draft a new sanctions resolution that could be passed in November if Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency does not

CRUDE oil prices shot higher and then retreated yesterday, reaching a new record of US$96 a barrel before concerns about the US economy and France's decision to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserve motivated investors to cash in some of their recent gains. The Commerce Department's report that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.4 percent increase analysts expected, raised the prospect of a slowing economy that could depress demand for oil. And downbeat news about manufacturing came from the Institute for Supply Management, which said industrial activity grew in October at the weakest pace since March. Still, oil prices have surged 20 percent in one month, and when any market rises that far that fast, investors tend to sell to lock in some of their gains. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates a quarter-percentage point on Wednesday got a mixed reception in the oil market but probably contributed to some of Thursday's

OIL futures extended their declines yesterday on expectations that the government's weekly fuel inventory report will show crude supplies increased last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average predict that crude inventories rose by 300,000 barrels during the week ended October 19. However, estimates vary widely, ranging from an increase of 2 million barrels to a decrease of 2 million barrels. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration will issue its inventory report Wednesday. Futures have declined every day since crude prices rose to a record above US$90 a barrel last week. Tuesday's retreat came as traders shrugged off initial concerns about a possible Turkish incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels. Concerns about a disruption in Iraqi crude sent oil prices higher early Tuesday, but the fact the gains didn't hold was a sign the market may be due for a correction, or sharp move lower, analysts said. "I think the

US stocks rose for a fifth straight week, the longest stretch of gains since May, after minutes from the Federal Reserve and better-than-expected retail sales bolstered hopes that the economy will keep expanding. Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the world's largest retailer, climbed to a two-month high after boosting its third-quarter profit forecast. Yum! Brands Inc, owner of the Pizza Hut and Taco Bell restaurant chains, jumped the most since September 2005 on earnings that topped analysts' estimates. Exxon Mobil Corp, the biggest oil company, led a gauge of energy shares to a record after crude prices rose to an all-time high. Minutes from the Fed's September 18 policy meeting showed central bankers avoided language that might have suggested the economy would fall into a recession. The Commerce Department said retail sales added 0.6 percent last month, from the 0.2 percent gain predicted by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. "The consumer is a staying force, earnings growth is

PETROLEUM futures rose sharply yesterday and oil prices passed US$83 a barrel after the US government reported an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories. Prices were also supported by an International Energy Agency report that concluded oil inventories held by the world's largest industrialized countries have fallen below a five-year average, and by concerns that clashes between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels could affect Iraqi oil supplies. "No news was bearish today," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Florida. "Really, that's all investors need right now to push energy prices higher." The weekly inventory report from the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude supplies fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended October 5. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average expected oil inventories to rise by 1 million barrels. While the report also concluded that refinery activity and

OIL futures surged yesterday in a late rally driven by news that workers at Chevron Corp. facilities in Nigeria had staged a surprise strike and by a report that demand for gasoline is up. Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and one of the top overseas suppliers to the United States. Oil prices often rise when Nigerian oil supplies are threatened. "Employees of some of the companies providing labor workforce to Chevron, and belonging to the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers ... initiated (a) strike" at six facilities, Chevron said in a statement. Chevron said production was unaffected. It was unclear how long the strike might last. Nigerian oil workers have a history of striking frequently, but returning to work quickly. Prices were also supported by a MasterCard Advisors LLC report that concluded gasoline demand rose 1.3 percentage points last week compared to the same week last year. Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.04 to settle at US$81.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November gasoline rose 1.34 US cents to settle at US$2.0336 a gallon while Nymex heating oil rose 3.19 US cents to settle at US$2.2172 a gallon. November natural gas rose 14.7 US cents to settle at US$7.01 per 1,000 cubic feet on expectations that this winter will be colder than last. In London, November Brent crude rose US$1.11 to settle at US$78.60 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. The news from Nigeria and MasterCard interrupted what had been a sleepy day in the Nymex energy futures pits. With little news driving prices earlier in the day, futures had alternated between gains and losses as traders debated whether Thursday's inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration will show an increase in crude stockpiles. The report will be released a day later than normal due to Monday's Columbus Day holiday. "The market was starving for some news," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires predict, on average, that crude oil inventories rose 1 million barrels during the week ended Oct. 5, while refinery use fell 0.1 percentage point to 87.4 percent of capacity. Gasoline inventories fell by 300,000 barrels last week, the analysts predict, while distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, likely declined 600,000 barrels. However, a consensus is far from clear, with some

OIL futures rose sharply yesterday after the government predicted that a colder winter ahead will help lift worldwide demand for crude during the fourth quarter. In a monthly report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration estimated that global demand for oil will be 1.8 million barrels a day higher in the fourth quarter than it was during the same period last year. The report follows a prediction Thursday from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that temperatures in the US will be 1.3 percent colder than last year, although they'll be 2.8 percent warmer than average. "Initially, traders are relying on the Energy Information Administration (report)," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in New York. However, Evans also said of Tuesday's trading, "I think there may (also) be a technical element to this." Oil prices declined more than US$2 a barrel on Monday, and have been volatile in recent days. Analysts say investors are engaged in a battle over whether oil supplies are adequate to meet fourth quarter demand. Some investors feel prices have peaked for the year and are due to begin a seasonal decline, while others feel prices could rise again and set new records. When prices held above US$78 on Monday, that may have emboldened some of the more bullish investors to try to push prices to new highs, Evans said. Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.24 to settle at US$80.26 a barrel Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gasoline futures rose 2 cents to settle at US$2.0202 a gallon. November heating oil rose 2.57 cents to settle at US$2.1853 a gallon, while natural gas for November rose 1.7 cents to US$6.863 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, November Brent crude rose 91 cents to settle at US$77.49 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices slipped 0.2 cent overnight to a national average of US$2.765 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices have slid in recent weeks as consumer demand for gasoline has fallen. In addition to reacting to Tuesday's EIA predictions about future demand, traders are anticipating Thursday's EIA report on petroleum inventories. Crude oil inventories are expected to have gained 1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 5, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts, while refinery use is expected to have fallen by 0.1 percentage point to

THE widening gap between crude oil and the relatively low price of gasoline is signaling the first quarterly decline in oil prices in a year. While oil has fallen in the fourth quarter during 13 of the past 20 years because of the transition from peak summer demand, the pressure for another drop in the months ahead is the most intense since 2004 and may defer any rebound to record crude prices until the first half of 2008. Citigroup Inc, Deutsche Bank AG and HSBC Holdings Plc anticipate that oil will slide from last month's record US$83.90 a barrel as gasoline sales weaken to the lowest level this year and a slowing US economy curbs demand. Profits from making fuels are so low that refiners have 12.5 percent of capacity off line, the second-highest rate of the past two decades for this time of year, data from the US Department of Energy show. "Refinery profit margins are being squeezed at a time when significant maintenance is scheduled," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc in New York. "The combination of these factors should send crude oil lower." Oil traders and analysts have never been more pessimistic, with 75 percent of respondents anticipating prices will fall, according to a weekly survey by Bloomberg News that started in April 2004. Crude may end the year below US$70 a barrel, compared with US$81.66 at the end of the third quarter, according to a forecast by Adam Sieminski, a global oil analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York. If he's right, a US$1 million investment in crude oil futures in New York would more than double to US$2.3 million, assuming speculators used the exchange's minimum deposit to conduct the transaction. Not everyone forecasts that oil will move lower by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc is the most bullish commodities trading firm on oil, forecasting on September 17 that crude will end the year at US$85 a barrel, with a "high risk" of a jump above US$90, according to a report from analysts including Jeffrey Currie in London. Its two current trading recommendations on oil are both money-losers. One of them was to buy the gasoline refining margin, which has lost more than half its value since then, Goldman's research shows.

ENERGY futures fell yesterday as traders expecting a weakening of demand in the coming months cashed in profits from the previous session's rally. While an encouraging employment report suggested the economy is weathering the problems affecting the subprime mortgage industry, many energy traders and analysts question whether demand for oil and petroleum products will be strong enough in the fourth quarter to support US$80 a barrel oil. Others argue that demand for oil will increase as home heating season progresses. While crude inventories have risen for two straight weeks, supplies of gasoline and distillates including heating oil fell last week. Investors betting demand will tighten in the fourth quarter drove oil prices US$1.50 higher on Thursday. Yesterday, light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 22 cents to settle at US$81.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures ended the week down 44 cents a barrel, or 0.5 percent. Trading yesterday was volatile, with prices alternately rallying and falling. "There's profit-taking going on after yesterday's rally," said Addison Armstrong, an analyst with TFS Energy Futures LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The quick resolution of many of Thursday's West Coast refinery outages also pressured prices yesterday. November gasoline fell 0.29 cent to settle at US$2.0493 a gallon on the Nymex, ending the week down 1.9 cents, or 0.9 percent. Heating oil futures fell 0.78 cent to settle at US$2.2235 a gallon. Both contracts surged more than 5 cents on Thursday. Natural gas for November delivery fell 33.9 cents to settle at US$7.073 per 1,000 cubic feet. Forecasters see little chance that a series of storms strung from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic will develop into tropical storms that could threaten critical gas and oil infrastructure. In London, November Brent crude fell 7 cents to settle at US$78.90 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Oil prices have been volatile in recent days as investors have battled over whether demand will grow or weaken in the fourth quarter. "It's a stalemate right now," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "People really don't know what the next move will be." Energy Department data suggests demand for gasoline is falling, and many analysts think that's a function of this year's record gas prices. But others argue that falling refinery activity and heating oil inventories sugg

OIL prices rose for the first time in four sessions yesterday as investors questioned whether supplies of crude, gasoline and heating oil are adequate to meet demand. With heating season about to begin, investors are betting demand for crude oil will jump as refineries start producing more heating oil. And refineries that are focused on heating oil will be turning out less gasoline. The Energy Department on Wednesday reported that crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week, while supplies of distillates including heating oil fell by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline supplies fell by 100,000 barrels. Traders view that increase in crude supplies as inadequate, said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Florida. "That's nothing," Cordier said. "We expect to see figures of 3 (million) and 5 (million) barrels." Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.50 to settle at US$81.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling more than US$1 earlier. Crude's uncertain direction early in the day reflected a battle between investors betting that demand will tighten, and those who feel oil has peaked and begun a seasonal decline. "This market is going to break seasonally or the global economy is going to find (oil prices are) a bargain," Cordier said. Oil prices also drew support from heating oil and gasoline futures. Nymex heating oil rose 5.26 cents to settle at US$2.2313 a gallon, while November gasoline rose 5.63 cents to settle at US$2.0522 a gallon. Prices of both were supported by the inventory declines and several minor refinery outages on the West Coast. November natural gas rose 13.5 cents to settle at US$7.412 per 1,000 cubic feet. The Energy Department reported that natural gas inventories rose by 57 billion cubic feet last week, less than the 65 billion-cubic-foot increase analysts forecast. Some analysts said a smattering of weather systems strung from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic were supporting natural gas prices, though none of the storms are expected to develop quickly into subtropical or tropical storms and threaten critical gas and oil infrastructure in the Gulf. In London, November Brent crude rose US$1.78 to settle at US$78.97 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Some analysts think this year's record gas prices are affecting demand, which fell last week. But prices will remain high if supplies continue falling. In the

OIL prices fell today in Asia, extending a decline from the previous session that came after an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 28 cents to US$79.66 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore. The Nymex crude contract fell 11 cents to settle at US$79.94 a barrel in yesterday's floor session. Crude oil futures have fallen four straight days after trading at near record levels last week. The weekly inventory report from the US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration was mixed, analysts said. Crude oil supplies unexpectedly rose in the week ended Sept. 28. Gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly fell. And while the drop in gasoline supplies is supportive, demand for the fuel is falling, and that will pressure gasoline prices and crude futures down the road, analysts said. The EIA said in its report that crude supplies rose 1.2 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had predicted that inventories fell 400,000 barrels. One million barrels of that increase were on the West Coast, the EIA said. Oil and gas infrastructure there is isolated from the rest of the country, though, and that might mean shortages elsewhere would support prices. Gasoline inventories fell 100,000 barrels last week, while supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 1.2 million barrels. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to grow 400,000 barrels, and distillate supplies to increase 700,000 barrels. Refinery utilization rose by 0.6 percentage points to 87.5 percent of capacity. Analysts had expected an 0.4 percentage point increase. Oil's true value is closer to US$65 a barrel, said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc in New York, instead of at the near US$80 a barrel or higher range it has been trading. Many analysts feel oil prices have been driven up by speculative buying, and they argue that the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals do not support the record prices of recent weeks. However, while many analysts expect oil prices to begin a seasonal decline into winter, few are willing to predict when that slide will begin. Oil prices normally drop off every year in the period between the northern summer driving season and the US and European winter. November Brent crude fell 23 cents to US$76.95 a barrel on the ICE futures