Business news with words analysts+consumer+department. 8 news.

OIL prices drifted higher in light holiday trading yesterday after predictions of a drop in crude inventories raised new supply concerns. With little other news to motivate buying or selling, investors focused on forecasts by analysts including Addison Armstrong, director of exchange traded markets at TFS Energy Futures LLC, who predicted crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels last week. Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc, predicted that crude stocks fell by 2 million to 3 million barrels. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reports oil inventories on Thursday this week, a day late due to Christmas. Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 82 cents to settle at US$94.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling as low as US$92.50 earlier. Prices rose more than US$2 on Friday after the government reported consumer spending jumped more than expected in November, raising hopes that the economy will weather the crisis roiling

CONSUMER confidence is falling, the odds of a recession have risen, analysts predict the worst holiday shopping since 2002 - and retail-industry executives are buying their companies' shares like never before. Limited Brands Inc Chief Executive Officer Leslie Wexner and eight other executives bought a record amount of stock last month after prices fell to a four-year low. Dillard's Inc director Warren Stephens made the biggest insider purchase ever as shares of the Arkansas-based department store chain headed for the steepest decline since at least 1980. Cambiar Investors LLC, Royce & Associates LLC and Becker Capital Management Inc say insider buying foreshadows a rebound. The last four times executives added to their holdings, the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Retailing Index rose an average 9.9 percent in the next three months, topping a 6.2-percent average rise in the S&P 500 Index. Retail company officials increased their investments by US$346.4 million since the start

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury bonds declined early Friday, sending yields higher, coming under pressure after the Labor Department reported hotter-than-expected consumer price inflation for November. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 9/32 to 100 3/32, its yield rising to 4.238%. "Another round of hot inflation data has driven yields sharply higher, though some of the news was discounted in advance of the CPI figures," said analysts at Action Economics. "The short-end is underperforming for the moment, leading to curve flattening, given the Fed policy implications and potential foreshortening of the easing cycle once the Fed manages to ensure liquidity over year-end with its TAF plans," they said.

CRUDE oil prices shot higher and then retreated yesterday, reaching a new record of US$96 a barrel before concerns about the US economy and France's decision to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserve motivated investors to cash in some of their recent gains. The Commerce Department's report that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.4 percent increase analysts expected, raised the prospect of a slowing economy that could depress demand for oil. And downbeat news about manufacturing came from the Institute for Supply Management, which said industrial activity grew in October at the weakest pace since March. Still, oil prices have surged 20 percent in one month, and when any market rises that far that fast, investors tend to sell to lock in some of their gains. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates a quarter-percentage point on Wednesday got a mixed reception in the oil market but probably contributed to some of Thursday's

US stocks rose for a fifth straight week, the longest stretch of gains since May, after minutes from the Federal Reserve and better-than-expected retail sales bolstered hopes that the economy will keep expanding. Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the world's largest retailer, climbed to a two-month high after boosting its third-quarter profit forecast. Yum! Brands Inc, owner of the Pizza Hut and Taco Bell restaurant chains, jumped the most since September 2005 on earnings that topped analysts' estimates. Exxon Mobil Corp, the biggest oil company, led a gauge of energy shares to a record after crude prices rose to an all-time high. Minutes from the Fed's September 18 policy meeting showed central bankers avoided language that might have suggested the economy would fall into a recession. The Commerce Department said retail sales added 0.6 percent last month, from the 0.2 percent gain predicted by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. "The consumer is a staying force, earnings growth is

OIL futures rose sharply yesterday after the government predicted that a colder winter ahead will help lift worldwide demand for crude during the fourth quarter. In a monthly report, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration estimated that global demand for oil will be 1.8 million barrels a day higher in the fourth quarter than it was during the same period last year. The report follows a prediction Thursday from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that temperatures in the US will be 1.3 percent colder than last year, although they'll be 2.8 percent warmer than average. "Initially, traders are relying on the Energy Information Administration (report)," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in New York. However, Evans also said of Tuesday's trading, "I think there may (also) be a technical element to this." Oil prices declined more than US$2 a barrel on Monday, and have been volatile in recent days. Analysts say investors are engaged in a battle over whether oil supplies are adequate to meet fourth quarter demand. Some investors feel prices have peaked for the year and are due to begin a seasonal decline, while others feel prices could rise again and set new records. When prices held above US$78 on Monday, that may have emboldened some of the more bullish investors to try to push prices to new highs, Evans said. Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose US$1.24 to settle at US$80.26 a barrel Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gasoline futures rose 2 cents to settle at US$2.0202 a gallon. November heating oil rose 2.57 cents to settle at US$2.1853 a gallon, while natural gas for November rose 1.7 cents to US$6.863 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, November Brent crude rose 91 cents to settle at US$77.49 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices slipped 0.2 cent overnight to a national average of US$2.765 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices have slid in recent weeks as consumer demand for gasoline has fallen. In addition to reacting to Tuesday's EIA predictions about future demand, traders are anticipating Thursday's EIA report on petroleum inventories. Crude oil inventories are expected to have gained 1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 5, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts, while refinery use is expected to have fallen by 0.1 percentage point to

WALL Street capped a huge week with a sharp advance yesterday after the government's employment report for September and its revision of August's data cooled the market's fears of a recession. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the measure most closely followed by market watchers, reached a new closing high. The Labor Department's report that employers added 110,000 jobs in September _ essentially what analysts had expected _ reassured Wall Street that the job market wasn't pulling back sharply as was feared a month ago. Though the data appeared to lessen the likelihood of an interest rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets Oct. 30-31, investors were relieved that the economy doesn't appear headed for a precipitous slowdown. Strength this year in the job market amid a housing downturn and tighter credit conditions has been an important pillar for the economy. With consumer spending accounting for about two-thirds of US economic activity, investors are eager for workers to continue to collect their paychecks. Much of Wall Street's collective exhale yesterday owed to a revision in August payrolls, which were updated to show a gain of 89,000 jobs compared with an earlier estimate of loss of 4,000 jobs. The release of the August figure _ when economists had predicted a rise _ sent the Dow down nearly 250 points in a single session and, market watchers say, played a role in the Fed's decision to cut its key interest rate by a larger-than-expected half-percentage point last month. "We're not seeing a weakening of the labor market. There's no indication that the wheels are falling off," said T.J. Marta, economic strategist at RBC Capital Markets. He contends that while the employment figures make it less likely the Fed will cut rates this month, many on Wall Street were relieved to see the economy forging ahead. "It looks bad compared with the rip-roaring days in the housing sector but this is called normalcy." The Dow Jones industrial average rose 91.70, or 0.66 percent, to 14,066.01. The blue chip index set a new trading high of 14,124.54, topping a high of 14,115.51 set Monday, when the index also saw a record close. Broader stock indicators also jumped. The S&P 500 index rose 14.75, or 0.96 percent, to 1,557.59. The advance put the S&P 500 ahead of the previous record close of 1,553.08, which occurred July 19 before stocks began a broad retrenchment amid concerns about credit, housing and the overall economy. The S&P 500

COMMODITIES had the biggest monthly gain in September in 32 years, led by wheat, crude oil and gold, as the US dollar's slump enhanced the appeal of energy, grains and precious metals as a hedge against inflation. The 19-commodity Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index was up 8.1 percent last month, the most since July 1975. Wheat climbed to a record in September amid a global grain shortfall, boosting corn and soybeans. Oil also hit a record, and gold reached a 27-year high. The Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs to bolster the American economy, sending the US dollar tumbling. "The Fed has signaled pretty clearly that (it) will answer the problem of a slowing economy with greater liquidity," said Chip Hanlon, who manages US$1 billion at Delta Global Advisors Inc in Huntington Beach, California. "We're in a bullish phase for commodities." The CRB Index rose to 333.67 from 308.76 on August 31. Wheat reached a record US$9.5125 a bushel on Friday. Crude oil climbed to US$83.90 a barrel, the highest ever, on September 20 and approached the record on Friday. Gold rose as high as US$752.80 an ounce on Friday, the highest since January 1980. The US dollar fell to a record against a weighted basket of six major currencies, including the euro, yen and pound. The Fed on September 18 cut its benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage point, more than economists forecast, to 4.75 percent in an attempt to shore up an economy threatened by a housing recession, according to Bloomberg News. The rate cut sparked inflation concerns. Some investors buy commodities to hedge against rising consumer prices, and the falling dollar makes raw materials priced in the United States currency cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The cut in US borrowing costs will continue to weaken the dollar and lead to "skyrocketing" prices for commodities, Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc, said in an interview last week. He co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros in the 1970s. Wheat rose on Friday after the US Department of Agriculture said US production and supplies were smaller than analysts expected. Global inventories are poised to decline to the lowest level in 26 years. Wheat futures for December delivery rose six US cents, or 0.6 percent, to US$9.39 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price was up 22 percent this month and has more than doubled in the past 12 months.